FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in the quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.
Monthly release dates for 2024 (tentative): 2 February, 8 March, 5 April, 3 May, 7 June, 5 July, 6 September, 4 October, 8 November, 6 December.
Global cereal supplies in 2023/24 remain comfortable; early production prospects of wheat in 2024 favourable
Release date: 08/03/2024
FAO’s new forecast for world cereal production in 2023 has been raised marginally and now stands at 2 840 million tonnes, marking a 1.1 percent (30.4 million tonnes) rise compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily the result of a substantial increase in the forecast for world maize output (up 5.3 percent), driven by Brazil, China (mainland) and the United States of America, which more than offsets a lower expected global wheat output (down 2.3 percent). As for rice, since February, FAO has upgraded its 2022/23 and 2023/24 production figures for India to take into account official data indicating large extensions planted to the summer crop cycle. This revision overshadows minor downward adjustments to production figures for other countries, particularly for Colombia and Myanmar. As a result of these changes, global rice production is now expected to reach 526.2 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2023/24, up 0.4 percent from the revised 2022/23 level.
At 2 823 million tonnes, the forecast for global cereal utilization in 2023/24 stands 1.4 million tonnes higher than the previous month’s forecast and 31.3 million tonnes (1.1 percent) above the 2022/23 level. Mostly stemming from higher feed use of maize, especially in Algeria and India, the forecast for 2023/24 global coarse grain utilization has been raised by 0.9 million tonnes to 1 506 million tonnes, representing a 1.2 percent increase from 2022/23. Despite a 1.0-million-tonne cut to the forecast this month, world wheat utilization in 2023/24 is still set to increase by 1.8 percent year-on-year to 793.3 million tonnes, supported mostly by anticipated growth in the feed use of wheat. World rice utilization is now forecast at 523.7 million tonnes in 2023/24, 1.5 million tonnes more than previously reported, largely due to upgrades to rice uses in India since 2022/23. Despite this upward revision, world rice uses in 2023/24 are still expected to register little to negative growth for the second consecutive season.
FAO's forecast for global cereal stocks ending in 2024 has also been raised since last month by 1.5 million tonnes to 896.9 million tonnes, representing a 24-million-tonne (2.8 percent) increase above their opening levels. Consequently, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio should be expected to increase from 30.9 percent in 2022/23 to 31.1 percent in 2023/24, pointing to a continuing comfortable global supply situation. This month’s upward revision in the forecast for global cereal stocks is due to further upgrades to global coarse grain inventories (up 2.4 million tonnes month-on-month), which were mostly boosted by higher estimates for maize stocks in China. Following this revision, global coarse grain stocks are expected to reach 379.3 million tonnes, up 25.9 million tonnes (7.3 percent) from their opening levels. By contrast, global wheat stocks, pegged at 318.9 million tonnes, were lowered marginally (0.8 million tonnes) since last month and are currently expected to decline by 4.3 million tonnes (1.3 percent) below their opening levels. World rice stocks at the close of 2023/24 marketing years are forecast at 198.7 million tonnes, essentially unchanged from February expectations and implying a 1.2 percent year-to-year expansion to an all-time high, but with accumulations occurring in exporting countries (mostly India), while reserves held by importing countries are anticipated to fall for the third successive season.
Pegged at 483 million tonnes, up 3.1 million tonnes from last month, the forecast for world cereals trade in 2023/24 points to a 6.4 million tonne (1.3 percent) increase above the 2022/23 level, resting exclusively on an anticipated rise in global coarse grain trade. Following a 3.1-million-tonne upward revision this month, global trade in coarse grains is forecast to expand by 10.3 million tonnes (4.6 percent) in 2023/24 (July/June) to 234.1 million tonnes. This month’s upgrade is driven by greater anticipated global maize trade, reflecting improved maize export prospects for Ukraine and stronger demand from China. Nearly unchanged this month at 197.5 million tonnes, world wheat trade in 2023/24 (July/June) is still likely to contract by 2.4 million tonnes (1.2 percent) from the previous season’s level. International trade in rice is forecast at 51.4 million tonnes in 2024 (January-December), little changed from February expectations and implying a second successive annual trade contraction.
Early outlook for 2024 crops
Looking ahead to 2024, FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production is pegged at 797 million tonnes, representing a 1 percent increase over the 2023 outturn but still below the record high reached in 2022. In the United States of America, lower prices have elicited a 6 percent year-on-year decline in winter wheat plantings. Nevertheless, ample precipitation since the last quarter of 2023, following two consecutive years of widespread drought, has raised both yield prospects and expectations that the harvested area could exceed the level of 2023. The country’s total wheat production in 2024 is forecast at 51.5 million tonnes, above the recent five-year average and the 2023 output. In Canada, similarly, reflecting softer prices, official projections indicate a 2 percent contraction in wheat plantings. However, with more conducive weather conditions forecast this year, after a weather-stricken 2023 harvest, good yield prospects are underlying expectations of an upturn in wheat production to 33 million tonnes in 2024. Conversely, in Europe, heavy rains disrupted and delayed sowing of the winter wheat crop, particularly in key producing countries France and Germany, with the total wheat area forecast to decline moderately in 2024. Combined with recent cold snaps and rainfall deficits that affected parts of the bloc, wheat production in the European Union is expected to fall slightly in 2024 to around 133 million tonnes. Less-than-ideal weather conditions were also present in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at sowing time, engendering a cut in the wheat area, which is set to cause a small decrease in production in 2024. Wheat planted area in Ukraine is estimated to have fallen further in 2024, as the war continues to obstruct access to fields and impose severe financial constraints on farmers, limiting the profitability of wheat production. In the Russian Federation, generally favourable weather conditions, which are forecast to continue for the rest of the season, are propping up expectations of a small increase in the country’s winter wheat production in 2024. In Asia, a bumper wheat outturn is forecast in India in 2024, reflecting adequate supplies of irrigation water, conducive weather conditions and remunerative crop prices that induced increased plantings. In Pakistan, wheat production is foreseen to increase to 28.3 million tonnes, amid overall conducive weather conditions. In China, driven by strong domestic demand and an increase in the minimum purchase price that supported large plantings, production is forecast at a slightly above-average level at 136.3 million tonnes. In Near East Asian countries, amid mostly beneficial weather conditions, near-average wheat outputs are forecast in Türkiye and the Islamic Republic of Iran, both significant producers. In North Africa, widespread rainfall deficits for a second consecutive year are impairing 2024 wheat yield prospects in Algeria and Tunisia, as well as in Morocco.
South of the equator, the 2024 main season maize crop is being planted in Brazil, and due to lower crop prices and a late soybean harvest that delayed sowing operations, the maize area is forecast to fall compared to the previous year. Total maize production in Brazil is seen declining from the record high of 2023 but still expected to exceed the past five-year average. Maize production in Argentina is expected to recover following the drought-affected harvest in 2023, based on conducive weather conditions. In South Africa, recent rainfall deficits have sharply dented yield prospects, and the country’s 2024 maize output is forecast to drop to a near-average level, below earlier expectations. Dry-weather conditions are affecting neighbouring countries and have sharply curtailed 2024 maize production prospects.